> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 14:30 UTC
FC Porto vs Santa Clara
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Porto's 1.55 xG advantage and 87% 1X probability create a tight but fundamentally favorable home win setup against a significantly outgunned visitor.
Win probability
51.7% home31.4% draw16.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC PortostepSanta Clara
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match0.83
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.80
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
8
3
1
1
15
12
5
1
2
11
9
4
1
3
6
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Porto 1–0 Santa Clara
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+