> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 10 May, 14:45 UTC
FC Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
54.6% home24.8% draw20.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC TwentestepSparta Rotterdam
2.02Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X
Model 41.7% · @ 2.40x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Twente 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+