FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
FC Twente 4–0 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Twente at 55%, draw at 25%, Sparta Rotterdam at 21%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Twente.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Twente win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Rotterdam win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.19 – 1.31
Total 3.50
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.40x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓