> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
FC Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Utrecht's significant 0.54 xG edge and 53% win probability justify backing the home side despite modest odds.
Win probability
47.0% home28.9% draw24.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC UtrechtstepFortuna Sittard
1.63Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.76Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 31.7% · @ 3.15x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Utrecht 2–0 Fortuna Sittard
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+