> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Thursday 21 May, 19:00 UTC
FC Utrecht vs Heerenveen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals is the strongest play; xG near parity (1.49-1.52) combined with 81% hit rate makes unders structurally weak.
Win probability
34.3% home29.8% draw35.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC UtrechtstepHeerenveen
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.58
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.52
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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8
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1
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11
9
4
2
1
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8
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1
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3
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1
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1
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1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Utrecht 3–2 Heerenveen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+