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Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Heerenveen

Heerenveen

Netherlands: Eredivisie

Heerenveen operate as a modest attacking unit with an xG output of 1.79 per match, offset by a leaky defence conceding 1.51—a profile suited to tight, low-scoring contests rather than dominance. Recent form has been inconsistent, yielding just one win across five matches with two draws cushioning two defeats. While no fixtures fall within the current window, the underlying metrics suggest the model performs well on Heerenveen matchdays, backed by an 80% banker hit rate across recent selections.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.79+0.13 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.510.17 vs league
◇ = Netherlands: Eredivisie average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Heerenveen were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Netherlands: Eredivisie average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Heerenveen are above average there.

> xG performance · last 5 matches
01234@ Nijmegen: actual 2, xG 1.51vs Heracles: actual 4, xG 2.39@ NAC Breda: actual 0, xG 1.83vs Ajax: actual 0, xG 1.68@ Utrecht: actual 2, xG 1.52@NijmegHeracl@NAC BrAjax@Utrech
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate -0.9 goals vs xG (-0.19/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals Heerenveen actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.51 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.68.
Bawler's edge: Goals (Over/Under)
Banker picks in this market land 80% of the time on Heerenveen fixtures (4/5).
> Form · last 5
Overall: 1W / 2D / 2L · Avg goals 1.6 for, 1.6 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Heerenveen's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
5
5 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.79
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.51
per match
Banker Hit Rate
80%
4/5 picks
> Bawler's Banker picks on Heerenveen matches
80%
hit rate over 5 picks

When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Heerenveen fixture, the model lands 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

> Recent matches (last 5)

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