> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
FC Volendam vs Telstar
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Volendam's marginal xG edge (1.57–1.54) and balanced win odds suggest tight margins, but BTTS No's 45% value exploits defensive solidity despite modest scoring—back under-goal scenarios.
Win probability
36.2% home29.2% draw34.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC VolendamstepTelstar
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.54
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
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1
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11
8
4
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2
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1
4
1
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1
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5
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + X2 + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 35.1% · @ 2.85x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Volendam 1–2 Telstar
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+