> MATCH.PREDICT()·TURKEY: Super Lig·Saturday 02 May, 17:00 UTC
Fenerbahce vs Basaksehir
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
47.0% home27.1% draw25.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FenerbahcestepBasaksehir
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.23
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 10.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 24.2% · @ 4.14x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fenerbahce 3–1 Basaksehir
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+