FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Fenerbahce 3–1 BasaksehirMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 47%, draw at 27%, Basaksehir at 26%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Fenerbahce.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Basaksehir win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.23
Total 2.97
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 4.14x
- 1X✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓