> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Fenerbahce's title desperation and 1.07 xG advantage over relegation-battling Eyupspor makes 1X at 74% the banker play.
Win probability
56.5% home27.7% draw15.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FenerbahcestepEyupspor
1.70Base xG · rolling 26-match0.92
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.89
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
3
1
1
12
11
5
1
2
11
10
4
1
3
7
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fenerbahce 3–3 Eyupspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+