FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Fenerbahce 3–3 EyupsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 57%, draw at 28%, Eyupspor at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Fenerbahce to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
57%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Eyupspor win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 0.89
Total 2.73
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.96x
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Fenerbahce's title desperation and 1.07 xG advantage over relegation-battling Eyupspor makes 1X at 74% the banker play."