FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 22 May 2026
Fiorentina 1–1 AtalantaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 22 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fiorentina at 42%, draw at 32%, Atalanta at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Fiorentina to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
42%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Atalanta win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.15
Total 2.66
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost