Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Atalanta
Team profile

Atalanta Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.6
a game
12.1 faced
On target
4.6
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
61%
Atalanta win chance
vs Sassuolo · Sun 23 Aug 18:45

Atalanta prediction: for Atalanta's next match — Atalanta vs Sassuolo on Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Atalanta win looks most likely (61%).

Atalanta sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.36 expected goals a game and conceding 1.24. Next up is Sassuolo, where the model makes them clear favourites at 61%.

Atalanta in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.4Away 1.2
5.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
Home 6.3Away 4.2
14.6
Shots · per game
faced 12.1
Home 16.9Away 12.3
4.6
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 5.0Away 4.2
Last 6 games
22 May
1-1
@ Fiorentina
3-3
17 May
0-1
vs Bologna
2-5
10 May
3-2
@ AC Milan
2-2
02 May
0-0
vs Genoa
6-2
27 Apr
2-3
@ Cagliari
6-4
18 Apr
1-1
@ Roma
6-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Sassuolo · Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
61%
Atalanta
Draw
23%
Loss
16%
Sassuolo
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Atalanta compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.36
Above average
Goals against
1.24
Tighter than most
Record
3W 2D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.36
Conceded1.24

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Atalanta fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Atalanta

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Fri 22 May@ Fiorentina
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Bologna
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ AC Milan
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ AS Roma
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Apr@ Lecce
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Marvs Verona
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INGianluca GaetanoCMfrom Cagliari€12m
INThomas KristensenCBfrom UdineseLoan
INSilvio Colellafrom FrosinoneLoan
OUTMarco PalestraRMto Chelsea€55m
OUTMarco BrescianiniCMto Fiorentina€10m
OUTDaniel MaldiniSTto CagliariLoan
OUTBerat DjimsitiCBto Al-Diraiyah€3m
OUTBen GodfreyCBto RangersLoan
OUTGiovanni BonfantiCBto Las PalmasLoan
OUTDominic Vavassorito PalermoLoan
OUTEl Bilal TouréLWto ParmaLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Atalanta and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly