Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Fiorentina
Team profile

Fiorentina Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.6
a game
13.2 faced
On target
4.0
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
17%
Fiorentina win chance
at Roma · Mon 24 Aug 18:45

Fiorentina prediction: for Fiorentina's next match — Roma vs Fiorentina on Monday 24 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Roma are favoured (58%).

Fiorentina sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.41 expected goals a game and conceding 1.42. Next up is a trip to AS Roma, where the model has them as underdogs at 17%.

Fiorentina in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.4Away 1.2
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
Home 5.7Away 3.6
13.6
Shots · per game
faced 13.2
Home 15.8Away 11.3
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 4.6Away 3.5
Last 6 games
14 Aug
4-1
vs Benevento
4-5
22 May
1-1
vs Atalanta
3-3
17 May
2-0
@ Juventus
2-6
10 May
0-0
vs Genoa
4-3
04 May
0-4
@ Roma
5-4
26 Apr
0-0
vs Sassuolo
7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Roma · Monday 24 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
17%
Fiorentina
Draw
25%
Loss
58%
Roma
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Fiorentina compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.41
Above average
Goals against
1.42
Leakier than most
Record
3W 3D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.41
Conceded1.42

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.41 xG per match · +0.16 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Fiorentina fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Fiorentina

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Fri 22 Mayvs Atalanta
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Juventus
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Genoa
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Aprvs Crystal Palace
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Apr@ Crystal Palace
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Marvs Inter
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Mar@ Rakow
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INFranco MastantuonoRWfrom Real MadridLoan
INChrist Inao OulaïDMfrom Trabzonspor€26m
INArthur AttaCMfrom Udinese€25m
INMateo PellegrinoSTfrom Parma€23m
INÁlex JiménezRBfrom AFC BournemouthLoan
INGiovanni FabbianAMfrom Bologna€16m
INVieryCBfrom Gremio€15m
INMarco BrescianiniCMfrom Atalanta€10m
OUTLucas BeltránSTto River PlateLoan
OUTRoberto PiccoliSTto BolognaLoan
OUTJacopo FazziniLWto CagliariLoan
OUTTariq LampteyRMto Queens Park RangersFree transfer
OUTAmir RichardsonCMto Le HavreLoan
OUTSimon SohmCMto VeneziaLoan
OUTMatías MorenoCBto VeneziaLoan
OUTRobin GosensLBto Schalke 04Loan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Fiorentina and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly