FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Fiorentina 0–0 GenoaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fiorentina at 44%, draw at 28%, Genoa at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Fiorentina to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
44%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Genoa win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.77 – 1.39
Total 3.17
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.75x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗