Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Genoa
Team profile

Genoa Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.4
a game
12.8 faced
On target
3.8
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
23%
Genoa win chance
vs Napoli · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Genoa prediction: for Genoa's next match — Genoa vs Napoli on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Napoli are favoured (46%).

Genoa sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.30 expected goals a game and conceding 1.33. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.17 goals a game against 1.30 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is Napoli, where the model has them as underdogs at 23%.

Genoa in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.2Away 1.0
3.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 3.6Away 3.7
11.4
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
Home 12.1Away 10.8
3.8
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 3.9Away 3.6
Last 6 games
24 May
0-1
@ Lecce
6-1
17 May
1-2
vs AC Milan
4-4
10 May
0-0
@ Fiorentina
3-4
02 May
0-0
@ Atalanta
2-6
26 Apr
0-2
vs Como
2-3
19 Apr
2-1
@ Pisa
5-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Napoli · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
23%
Genoa
Draw
31%
Loss
46%
Napoli
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Genoa compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.30
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Leakier than most
Record
0W 1D 5L
6 settled
Real goals
0.2 – 1.5
For / against, per match
Scored1.30
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

How Bawler has done on Genoa

33%
of high-confidence calls correct — 2 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result67%2/3
Goals (Over/Under)0%0/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 May@ Lecce
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs AC Milan
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Fiorentina
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Aprvs Como
High confidence: Genoa or Draw (Double Chance)
Mon 06 Apr@ Juventus
High confidence: 1X
Fri 20 Marvs Udinese
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INHamed TraorèAMfrom MarseilleLoan
INTommaso BaldanziAMfrom Roma€9.5m
INLorenzo ColomboSTfrom Milan€7m
INDjibril SowCMfrom Sevilla€4m
INMario MitajLBfrom Al IttihadLoan
INFranz-Ethan MeichtryRWfrom Thun€3.5m
INSamuel WiafeCMfrom Modena€2.5m
INElias HavelSTfrom Hartberg€2m
OUTJeff EkhatorSTto Juventus€16m
OUTPatrizio MasiniDMto FrosinoneLoan
OUTRuslan MalinovskyCMto TrabzonsporFree transfer
OUTSeydou FiniRWto FrosinoneLoan
OUTGabriele CalvaniCBto FrosinoneLoan
OUTAlessandro VogliaccoCBto CremoneseUndisclosed
OUTNicola LealiGKto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTCaleb EkubanSTto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Genoa and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly