> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 19:10 UTC
France vs Ivory Coast
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability because France's 1.76 xG nearly doubles Ivory Coast's 1.01, creating a high-volume attacking mismatch on home soil.
Win probability
51.7% home28.9% draw19.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FrancestepIvory Coast
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.76Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.01
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
France 1–2 Ivory Coast
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+