FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 04 June 2026

France 1–2 Ivory CoastMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 04 June 2026

1–2

Ivory Coast win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had France at 52%, draw at 29%, Ivory Coast at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was France to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

France win

52%

Draw

29%

Coast win

19%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.76 – 1.01

Total 2.78

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 73%

✓ Won

Value

Home Win

Pre-match: 55%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability because France's 1.76 xG nearly doubles Ivory Coast's 1.01, creating a high-volume attacking mismatch on home soil."

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