> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC
Fulham vs AFC Bournemouth
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
35.1% home27.7% draw37.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FulhamstepAFC Bournemouth
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.78
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.71
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 30.6% · @ 3.27x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fulham 0–1 AFC Bournemouth
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+