FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Fulham 0–1 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 35%, draw at 28%, AFC Bournemouth at 37%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward AFC Bournemouth.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
35%
Draw
28%
Bournemouth win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.71
Total 3.38
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 42%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.27x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗