> MATCH.PREDICT()·TURKEY: Super Lig·Sunday 26 Apr, 17:00 UTC
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.3% home26.3% draw27.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GalatasaraystepFenerbahce
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.05
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
12
12
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahce
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+