FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Galatasaray 3–0 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Galatasaray at 46%, draw at 26%, Fenerbahce at 27%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Galatasaray.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Fenerbahce win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.05
Total 2.50
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Galatasaray or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost