> MATCH.PREDICT()·TURKEY: Super Lig·Friday 01 May, 17:00 UTC
Gaziantep vs Besiktas
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
30.7% home29.6% draw39.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GaziantepstepBesiktas
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match1.50
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 17.1% · @ 5.85x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Gaziantep 0–2 Besiktas
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+