FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Friday, 01 May 2026
Gaziantep 0–2 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 01 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Gaziantep at 31%, draw at 30%, Besiktas at 40%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Besiktas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Gaziantep win
31%
Draw
30%
Besiktas win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.24 – 1.45
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 5.85x
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗