FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Genoa 0–2 ComoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Genoa at 44%, draw at 26%, Como at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Genoa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
44%
Draw
26%
Como win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.10
Total 2.52
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Genoa or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost