> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Wednesday 13 May, 19:30 UTC
Getafe vs Mallorca
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Getafe's Europa motivation plus xG superiority (1.51 vs 1.28) makes Over 1.5 Goals at 77% the decisive play despite low-scoring context.
Win probability
39.5% home31.0% draw29.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GetafestepMallorca
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.33
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.28
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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12
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + X2
Model 34.4% · @ 2.91x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Getafe 3–1 Mallorca
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+