FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
Getafe 3–1 MallorcaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 39%, draw at 31%, Mallorca at 30%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Getafe.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Mallorca win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.28
Total 2.79
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.91x
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
- X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"Getafe's Europa motivation plus xG superiority (1.51 vs 1.28) makes Over 1.5 Goals at 77% the decisive play despite low-scoring context."