> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Thursday 14 May, 18:00 UTC
Girona vs Real Sociedad
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Sociedad's Europa League desperation edges a cagey affair where BTTS No exploits Girona's blunt attack despite balanced xG.
Win probability
35.8% home31.1% draw33.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GironastepReal Sociedad
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.43
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.37
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
6
8
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
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6
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3
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3
1
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1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 29.1% · @ 3.43x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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Girona 1–1 Real Sociedad
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+