FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Girona 1–1 Real SociedadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Girona at 36%, draw at 31%, Real Sociedad at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Girona to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Girona win
36%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Sociedad win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.37
Total 2.81
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.43x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
> What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad's Europa League desperation edges a cagey affair where BTTS No exploits Girona's blunt attack despite balanced xG."