> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 10 May, 14:45 UTC
Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
26.9% home24.9% draw48.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Go Ahead EaglesstepPSV Eindhoven
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match2.25
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.17
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Go Ahead Eagles 1–4 PSV Eindhoven
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+