FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 1–4 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 27%, draw at 25%, PSV Eindhoven at 48%. The match ended 1-4 — confirming the model's lean toward PSV Eindhoven.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eagles win
27%
Draw
25%
Eindhoven win
48%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 2.17
Total 3.78
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.00x
- X2✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓