Bawler / NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie / PSV
Team profile

PSV Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.4
a game
12.5 faced
On target
6.6
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
2.7 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
54%
PSV win chance
vs Groningen · Sun 23 Aug 12:30

PSV prediction: for PSV's next match — PSV vs Groningen on Sunday 23 Aug, 12:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a PSV win looks most likely (54%).

PSV carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.98 expected goals per game against an Eredivisie average of 1.42. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.67 a game against 1.98 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is FC Groningen, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 54%.

PSV in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 3.0Away 2.3
6.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 7.4Away 6.2
16.4
Shots · per game
faced 12.5
Home 18.0Away 14.7
6.6
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 6.9Away 6.3
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-1
@ Excelsior
7-1
08 Aug
2-2
vs Sittard
9-0
02 Aug
0-4
vs AZ Alkmaar
6-3
17 May
5-1
vs Twente
12-9
10 May
4-1
@ Go Ahead Eagles
4-8
02 May
2-2
@ Ajax
4-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Groningen · Sunday 23 Aug, 12:30 UTC

Win
54%
PSV
Draw
25%
Loss
21%
Groningen
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How PSV compare with the NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.98
Above average
Goals against
1.55
Leakier than most
Record
3W 2D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
2.7 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.98
Conceded1.55

The grey line on each bar is the NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie average (1.42 scored, 1.53 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.98 xG per match · +0.56 above the NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie average of 1.42.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on PSV fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on PSV

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%5/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 15 Aug@ Excelsior
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Augvs Fortuna Sittard
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs FC Twente
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Go Ahead Eagles
High confidence: X2
Sat 02 May@ Ajax
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Telstar
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INSven MijnansCMfrom AZ Alkmaar€13m
INKodai SanoDMfrom NEC NijmegenUndisclosed
INFilip KosticLWBfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTIsmael SaibariAMto Bayern München€50m
OUTMyron BoaduSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTRobin van DuivenSTto Real ValladolidFree transfer
OUTNiek SchiksGKto RKC WaalwijkLoan
OUTNicolas VerkooijenCMto DarmstadtFree transfer
OUTJesper UnekenSTto Sirius€575k
OUTJoël DrommelGKto FC Twente€500k
OUTSami BouhoudaneSTto Cambuur€350k

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on PSV and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly