> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Haiti vs New Zealand
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals carries 79% probability because Haiti and New Zealand's combined expected goals (2.34) and near-identical attacking threat (xG gap under 0.30) point to a multi-goal affair.
Win probability
33.4% home34.6% draw32.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HaitistepNew Zealand
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
11
6
2
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Haiti 4–0 New Zealand
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+