Bawler / World: World Cup / New Zealand
Team profile

New Zealand Prediction

Per-game numbers from 3 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.0
a game
27.0 faced
On target
3.5
a game
8.5 faced
Goals
1.3 – 3.3
scored – conceded
a game, 3 matches
Corners
4.5
a game
5.5 against

New Zealand prediction: Bawler's model rates New Zealand at 1.02 expected goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 80% of the time. They have lost 4 of their last 5 settled matches. No New Zealand fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

New Zealand are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.67 expected goals a game against a World Cup average of 1.38. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on New Zealand have been correct 80% of the time.

New Zealand in numbers

3 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 3.3
Home 1.0Away 2.0
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.5
Home 4.5
9.0
Shots · per game
faced 27.0
Home 9.0
3.5
On target · per game
faced 8.5
Home 3.5
Last 3 games
27 Jun
1-5
vs Belgium
5-8
22 Jun
1-3
vs Egypt
4-3
16 Jun
2-2
@ Iran
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How New Zealand compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.02
Below average
Goals against
1.67
Leakier than most
Record
0W 1D 4L
5 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 3.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.02
Conceded1.67

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.02 xG per match · -0.31 above the World: World Cup average of 1.33.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.67 xG per match · +0.28 vs league average of 1.38.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on New Zealand fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on New Zealand

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

More on New Zealand and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly