> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Haiti vs Peru
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 79% probability because combined xG of 2.33 and a dead-even win split (Haiti 30%, Peru 35%, draw 35%) point to a free-flowing, low-stakes friendly where both sides attack.
Win probability
30.2% home34.6% draw35.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HaitistepPeru
1.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.11Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Haiti 1–2 Peru
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+