Bawler / Haiti vs Peru / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Haiti 1–2 PeruMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Haiti
1–2
Peru win
Peru
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Haiti at 30%, draw at 35%, Peru at 35%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Peru.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Haiti win
30%
Draw
35%
Peru win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.11 – 1.22
Total 2.33
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.7 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 79% probability because combined xG of 2.33 and a dead-even win split (Haiti 30%, Peru 35%, draw 35%) point to a free-flowing, low-stakes friendly where both sides attack."

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