> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 18:45 UTC
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Roma's superior motivation in the Champions League race combined with Hellas's defensive struggles in relegation battle makes Over 1.5 Goals the strongest lean.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Hellas Verona
Relegation confirmed
Mathematically down · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −2.1% for motivation
Away
AS Roma
Holding Champions League spot
3rd · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.4% for motivation
Win probability
28.3% home34.9% draw36.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Hellas VeronastepAS Roma
0.97Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.23
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
13
8
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
4
2
1
3
2
2
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hellas Verona 0–2 AS Roma
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+