FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Hellas Verona 0–2 AS RomaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Hellas Verona at 28%, draw at 35%, AS Roma at 37%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Verona win
28%
Draw
35%
Roma win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.05 – 1.23
Total 2.28
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Roma's superior motivation in the Champions League race combined with Hellas's defensive struggles in relegation battle makes Over 1.5 Goals the strongest lean."