Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Roma
Team profile

Roma Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.5
a game
9.9 faced
On target
4.7
a game
3.6 faced
Goals
1.6 – 0.8
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
58%
Roma win chance
vs Fiorentina · Mon 24 Aug 18:45

Roma prediction: for Roma's next match — Roma vs Fiorentina on Monday 24 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Roma win looks most likely (58%).

Roma sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.34 expected goals a game and conceding 1.16. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.34 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is Fiorentina, where the model makes them clear favourites at 58%.

Roma in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 0.8
Home 1.7Away 1.5
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.6
Home 5.9Away 4.5
13.5
Shots · per game
faced 9.9
Home 15.8Away 11.2
4.7
On target · per game
faced 3.6
Home 5.4Away 4.0
Last 6 games
24 May
2-0
@ Verona
6-6
17 May
2-0
vs Lazio
8-3
10 May
3-2
@ Parma
6-3
04 May
4-0
vs Fiorentina
4-5
25 Apr
2-0
@ Bologna
7-7
18 Apr
1-1
vs Atalanta
7-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Fiorentina · Monday 24 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
58%
Roma
Draw
25%
Loss
17%
Fiorentina
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Roma compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.34
Above average
Goals against
1.16
Tighter than most
Record
4W 2D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.34
Conceded1.16

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.16 xG per match · -0.16 vs league average of 1.32.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Roma fixtures (5/5).
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Roma

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%5/5
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 24 May@ Hellas Verona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Lazio
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Parma
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Aprvs Atalanta
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Apr@ Inter
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Marvs Lecce
High confidence: 1X
Thu 19 Marvs Bologna
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INSantiago CastroSTfrom Bologna€35m
INDonyell MalenSTfrom Aston Villa€20m
INNahuel MolinaRBfrom Atletico Madrid€18m
INKonstantinos KoulierakisCBfrom Wolfsburg€17m
INDaniele GhilardiCBfrom Hellas Verona€8m
OUTArtem DovbykSTto BolognaLoan
OUTTommaso BaldanziAMto Genoa€9.5m
OUTAngeliñoLWBto Deportivo A CoruñaLoan
OUTZeki ÇelikRWBto JuventusFree transfer
OUTBuba SangaréCBto Elche€4.5m
OUTSaud AbdulhamidRWBto Lens€3.5m
OUTEldor ShomurodovAMto Başakşehir€2.8m
OUTMarash KumbullaCBto Rayo VallecanoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Roma and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly