> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 10 May, 10:30 UTC
Hellas Verona vs Como
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
25.6% home30.6% draw43.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Hellas VeronastepComo
1.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.66
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.18Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.60
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
8
4
2
1
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hellas Verona 0–1 Como
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+