FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Hellas Verona 0–1 ComoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Hellas Verona at 26%, draw at 31%, Como at 44%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Como.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Verona win
26%
Draw
31%
Como win
44%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.60
Total 2.78
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.72x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✗