> MATCH.PREDICT()·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Sunday 26 Apr, 12:30 UTC
Heracles vs FC Volendam
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.7% home24.7% draw28.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HeraclesstepFC Volendam
1.60Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.20
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Heracles 0–2 FC Volendam
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+