Heracles are a fragile outfit struggling to convert limited chances while shipping goals at an alarming rate: 1.50 xG for versus 1.84 against exposes a team caught between clinical underperformance and structural defensive weakness. Recent form has deteriorated sharply, with only one draw in the last four settled fixtures, though the underlying metrics suggest regression to the mean is possible if they can tighten their backline. With no immediate fixture on the horizon, focus remains on stabilising a leaky defence that has become their primary liability. Bawler's banker selections on Heracles matches have delivered at 50 per cent hit rate, reflecting the volatility inherent in predicting a side this defensively exposed.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Heracles were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Heracles are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Heracles actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Heracles's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.