FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership - Championship Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Hibernian 1–2 HeartsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hibernian at 46%, draw at 26%, Hearts at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Hibernian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
46%
Draw
26%
Hearts win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.10
Total 2.60
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Hibernian or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost