Bawler / SCOTLAND: Premiership / Hearts
Team profile

Hearts Prediction

Per-game numbers from 43 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.9
a game
10.4 faced
On target
4.9
a game
3.1 faced
Goals
1.9 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 43 matches
Next match
25%
Hearts win chance
at Falkirk · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Hearts prediction: for Hearts's next match — Falkirk vs Hearts on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Falkirk are favoured (45%).

Hearts sit close to the Premiership average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.28. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.86 a game against 1.40 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Falkirk, where the model has them as underdogs at 25%.

Hearts in numbers

43 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 2.2Away 1.5
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 5.4Away 5.6
13.9
Shots · per game
faced 10.4
Home 13.9Away 13.9
4.9
On target · per game
faced 3.1
Home 5.3Away 4.5
Last 6 games
16 Aug
6-2
vs Inverness
8-3
13 Aug
1-1
vs Benfica
0-11
09 Aug
4-0
vs Dundee United
7-2
06 Aug
1-6
@ Benfica
2-6
01 Aug
1-2
@ Aberdeen
6-4
16 May
1-3
@ Celtic
6-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Falkirk · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
25%
Hearts
Draw
30%
Loss
45%
Falkirk
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Hearts compare with the SCOTLAND: Premiership average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Above average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Record
4W 2D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
1.9 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.40
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the SCOTLAND: Premiership average (1.34 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Hearts fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Hearts

86%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Thu 13 Augvs Benfica
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Augvs Dundee United
High confidence: 1X
Thu 06 Aug@ Benfica
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 04 Mayvs Rangers
High confidence: 1X
Sun 26 Apr@ Hibernian
High confidence: Hibernian or Draw (Double Chance)
Sun 05 Apr@ Livingston
High confidence: X2
Sat 21 Marvs Dundee FC
High confidence: 1X

More on Hearts and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly