Bawler / SCOTLAND: Premiership / Hibernian
Team profile

Hibernian Prediction

Per-game numbers from 43 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.0
a game
12.4 faced
On target
4.4
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 43 matches
Next match
63%
Hibernian win chance
vs Kilmarnock · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Hibernian prediction: for Hibernian's next match — Hibernian vs Kilmarnock on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Hibernian win looks most likely (63%).

Hibernian are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.65 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.05. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.65 expected. Next up is Kilmarnock, where the model makes them clear favourites at 63%.

Hibernian in numbers

43 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.6Away 1.3
4.9
Corners · per game
give up 5.5
Home 5.6Away 4.1
12.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.4
Home 14.1Away 9.8
4.4
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 5.0Away 3.8
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-0
vs Partick Thistle
4-5
13 Aug
0-0
@ KF Shkëndija
3-4
09 Aug
2-1
@ Rangers
3-7
06 Aug
2-1
vs KF Shkëndija
4-3
02 Aug
1-2
vs Motherwell
9-2
16 May
0-1
vs Motherwell
7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Kilmarnock · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
63%
Hibernian
Draw
24%
Loss
13%
Kilmarnock
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Hibernian compare with the SCOTLAND: Premiership average, per match.

Goals for
1.65
Above average
Goals against
1.05
Tighter than most
Record
2W 2D 1L
5 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.65
Conceded1.05

The grey line on each bar is the SCOTLAND: Premiership average (1.34 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.65 xG per match · +0.32 above the SCOTLAND: Premiership average of 1.34.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.05 xG per match · -0.35 vs league average of 1.40.

How Bawler has done on Hibernian

60%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 5
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Thu 13 Aug@ KF Shkëndija
High confidence: Under 2.5 Goals
Sun 09 Aug@ Rangers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 06 Augvs KF Shkëndija
High confidence: Home Win
Sun 26 Aprvs Hearts
High confidence: Hibernian or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 21 Mar@ Motherwell
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INNathan LoweSTfrom Stoke CityLoan
INAdam MayorLWfrom MillwallFree transfer
INCallum WrightAMfrom Plymouth ArgyleFree transfer
INJason KerrCBfrom Wigan AthleticFree transfer
INAzeem AbdulaiDMfrom Leyton OrientUndisclosed
OUTThody Élie YouanSTto Wisła KrakówFree transfer
OUTJacob MacIntyreLWto ArbroathLoan
OUTMurray JohnsonGKto ShelbourneLoan
OUTChris CaddenRWBto AberdeenUndisclosed
OUTJoseph McGrathCBto StranraerLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Hibernian and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly