> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 03 May, 00:30 UTC
Houston Dynamo FC vs Colorado Rapids
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
25.2% home27.3% draw47.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Houston Dynamo FCstepColorado Rapids
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match1.80
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.20Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.73
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
5
9
8
5
2
1
1
6
11
10
6
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.5% · @ 8.67x
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Houston Dynamo FC 1–0 Colorado Rapids
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+