FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 1–0 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 25%, draw at 27%, Colorado Rapids at 48%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Colorado Rapids to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
25%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Rapids win
48%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.73
Total 2.93
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.67x
- X2✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗