> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 23:00 UTC
Inter Miami CF vs Philadelphia Union
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Inter Miami's 1.75 xG advantage combined with 81% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the strongest play despite modest win odds.
Win probability
45.1% home28.9% draw26.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Inter Miami CFstepPhiladelphia Union
1.62Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.75Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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6
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1
8
11
7
3
1
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9
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2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter Miami CF 6–4 Philadelphia Union
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+