Bawler / USA: MLS / Philadelphia Union
Team profile

Philadelphia Union Prediction

Per-game numbers from 51 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.9
a game
9.8 faced
On target
5.0
a game
3.4 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 51 matches
Next match
28%
Philadelphia Union win chance
at New York City · Sun 16 Aug 22:00

Philadelphia Union prediction: for Philadelphia Union's next match — New York City vs Philadelphia Union on Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it New York City are favoured (42%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Philadelphia Union sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.44 expected goals a game and conceding 1.41. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is a trip to New York City FC, where the model has them as underdogs at 28%.

Philadelphia Union in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.8Away 1.4
6.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.0
Home 7.1Away 5.3
15.9
Shots · per game
faced 9.8
Home 16.9Away 14.6
5.0
On target · per game
faced 3.4
Home 5.7Away 4.0
Last 6 games
14 Aug
0-2
vs Santos Laguna
6-6
10 Aug
3-1
vs Necaxa
4-7
07 Aug
0-1
@ Cruz Azul
7-1
01 Aug
3-2
vs Atlanta Utd
12-2
25 Jul
1-0
vs Seattle Sounders
6-1
22 Jul
3-1
vs New York Red Bulls
8-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs New York City · Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC

Win
28%
This team
Draw
30%
Loss
42%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 77%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Philadelphia Union compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.44
Below average
Goals against
1.41
Tighter than most
Record
3W 4D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.44
Conceded1.41

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.
Squad availability · Philadelphia Union vs New York City
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Philadelphia Union

55%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 11, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result50%3/6
Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Augvs Inter Miami CF
Sun 23 Aug@ Austin FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 02 Augvs Atlanta United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 25 May@ Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Columbus Crew
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 May@ Orlando City SC
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ New England Revolution
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Nashville SC
High confidence: X2
Sun 19 Aprvs DC United
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Apr@ Charlotte
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INKai WagnerLBfrom Birmingham City€3.5m
OUTOlwethu MakhanyaCBto Rangers€3.6m
OUTNick ParianoCMto Huntsville CityFree transfer
OUTChris DonovanSTto Louisville CityFree transfer
OUTEdward DavisSTto Loudoun United FCLoan
OUTMarkus AndersonSTto Brooklyn FCLoan
OUTChristopher Olney Jr.LWto Brooklyn FCLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Philadelphia Union and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly